The 3-2 Curveball (Or Slider): Is It a Smart Pitch Call?

Pitch calling in baseball is one of the more fascinating aspects of being a pitcher. Though every pitch call is essentially an educated guess, pitch selection can easily be the difference between a great game and a terrible game.

Today, let’s discuss a controversial pitch call: the 3-2 breaking ball.

Is It Smart To Throw a 3-2 Breaking Ball?

This is entirely dependent on a few factors:

The pitcher and his ability to command his breaking ball
The situation
The hitter
The at-bat as it’s played out thus far

YES

Times When a 3-2 Breaking Ball is Smart

When a Pitcher Can Throw His Breaking Ball for a Strike 60+ Percent of the Time.

The average strike rate in the Majors is about 60%. For Amateurs, this is a good standard as well, as hitters are less disciplined and the strike zone is wider, even though amateur command isn’t as good.

If a pitcher can throw his breaking ball for a strike 60% of the time, then it’s close enough to his fastball command where there’s no extra risk.

When a Pitcher Is Very Confident in His Breaking Ball

Confidence is key.
If a pitcher really believes he can throw it, AND he has the ability (which he probably does if he has strong belief in it) then go for it.

When First Base is Open and it’s a Tight Ballgame

With first base unoccupied, the potential consequence of a walk–forcing the runners up a base–is gone.

A walk sets up the double play and if a pitcher has average command or better, than a walk to an unoccupied base doesn’t really hurt.

When Throwing The Pitch Is Good For the Pitcher’s Development

Throwing a 3-2 breaking ball is hard, and it’s something that needs to be practiced. If it’s a low-pressure game or situation, then building confidence in making that pitch is a good idea.
Development before winning!

When a Hitter Has Taken Some Good Cuts and Fouled a Bunch Off

We’ve all been in a 3-2 count where it’s just a stalemate–the hitter keeps fouling off fastball after fastball. After a while, it’s definitely in a pitcher’s best interest to change pitches.

NO

When Not To Throw a 3-2 Breaking Ball

Most of the Time For High School Pitchers or Below.

Throwing curveballs and sliders for strikes is a late-blooming skill for most. For the majority of amateur players, they probably throw their breaking ball for strikes 40-50% of the time at best, compared with 60-65% for their fastball.

This means that a coach should expect a 3-2 walk 60% of the time on a breaking ball. Probably not worth the risk, especially considering how bad most amateur hitters are.

When The Score Gap is Big

If you’re up by 5+ runs, you can still throw all of your pitches and pitch normally, with the exception of risky counts.

Free baserunners are the biggest reason teams have “crooked number” innings (3+ runs).

When up or down by a lot of runs, stick to high-percentage pitches (fastballs, usually) in even counts like 1-1, 2-2 and 3-2 to force hitters to bat in all of their runs in.

When It’s a 7-8-9 Hole Hitter

These guys are the team’s worst hitters, which is why they’re batting at the bottom of the order.

They typically have slower bats, poor pitch recognition ability, bad instincts, reflexes and coordination relative to their peers.

If you walk the 9-hole hitter, you’re putting runners on base for the top of the lineup…

When a Pitcher has an Exceptional Fastball.

If a pitcher has a fastball with exceptional velocity and/or movement or “life” (extraordinary spin rate), then whenever the count is even or the pitch call uncertain, they should use their best pitch: the fastball.

Aroldis Chapman doesn’t throw many 3-2 sliders, and if he does, he probably has a verrrrrrry good reason for it.

Get beat on your best.

When a Pitcher Lacks Confidence In It

The perfect pitch call–in theory–isn’t worth a dime if the pitcher doesn’t believe in it.

A pitcher must have belief in everything he throws, for if he doesn’t, the likeihood he babies it (and it gets clobbbered) or he guides it (and it’s almost a guaranteed ball four) is very, very high.

Confidence is king.

What Did I Leave Out?

Leave a comment below: What other situations belong on this list? Do you think the 3-2 curveball or slider is a smart pitch call?

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Dan Blewett